After 2020, when schools were down about 10 percent in average enrollment, 2021 is shaping up to be a bounce-back year for most of Capture Higher Ed’s client schools. Now that most schools’ deposit deadline has passed, we have a clearer picture of what their classes will look like — 63 percent of our schools are up in deposits compared to 2020.
As of June 7, Capture’s median partner is up 5% in deposits. Deposits year-over-year are a good comparison, but a better one is how our enrollment predictions are looking. For schools with an ENROLL model, the median change in predicted enrollment is 4%.
Enrollment models can tell us where schools need to focus on yield efforts. At this point in the cycle, they can also tell our partners where to focus on preventing melt — who are the students who’ve deposited but are the least likely to show up to campus, students who may need some extra attention over the summer.
Beyond outpacing 2020, Capture’s partners are also doing well in comparison to a more normal year. Half of Capture’s partners are predicted to exceed their 2019 enrollment.
Look Close to Campus
Earlier in the spring, we reported the surprising fact that admitted students are actually coming from farther away from campus than last year. As we move further into “yield season” that trend has held up. Students are coming from about 3.5 miles farther on average compared to last year but about .5 miles closer to campus than in 2019.
As schools are looking to shore up deposits, they should look to their backyard for potential students.
By John Foster, Data Scientist, Capture Higher Ed
